Draft Dodger

The NBA playoffs have started, which means the only thing left for non-playoff teams to look forward to is the draft. A number of college underclassmen have declared for the NBA draft, some of whom have undoubtedly made poor decisions for themselves.
There was one player, however, who didn't declare for the draft who has also made a poor decision for himself and that's Duke guard Grayson Allen.
Allen led the Blue Devils in scoring and his opportunity to improve his draft stock will likely diminish. Examine the facts: Duke has a heralded recruiting class, which means more touches for more teammates. The incoming blue chip freshmen, the potential return of Amile Jefferson and the likely improvement of Luke Kennard and Chase Jeter are going to make it really difficult for Allen to score 20-plus in his junior year. And no matter how you slice it, that will seem like he regressed. The other option to prevent that from happening is to possess the ball more and shoot more, making him look like he's not a team player, which will also hurt his draft stock. Either way, nothing good can come out of playing his junior season.
But look even closer at the stats. They'll tell you a bigger story of particular importance to Allen. Players who stay three or more years at Duke, especially lately, condemn themselves to mediocrity. Consider the following list of Duke stars who played three or more years: Christian Laettner, JJ Redick, Mason Plumlee, Shane Battier, Seth Curry, Kyle Singler, Mike Dunleavy, DeMarcus Nelson, Grant Hill and Bobby Hurley. Certainly it's a list of not only some of the best Duke players ever, but also some of the best players in college basketball history.
Those 10 players, however, have combined to average just 92 points a game.
Now consider the list of Kyrie Irving, Jahlil Okafor, Luol Deng, Jabari Parker, Elton Brand and Rodney Hood. Those six players all played two years or fewer at Duke and combine to score 98 points a game. Six players outscoring ten. Perhaps it's a coincidence. Of the 16, only Irving is averaging more than 20 a game. Which list is he on? Of the list of six short term players, Parker is averaging the fewest points per game at 13.8. On the list of ten, only Hill is averaging more than that. Six players on the list of 10 are averaging under 10 points a game. Maybe it's all just a coincidence. So look at some other schools, like Kentucky. How are DeMarcus Cousins, Devin Booker, Karl Anthony Towns, John Wall and Anthony Davis doing? And Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Zac LaVine, Jrue Holiday and Darren Collison from UCLA all seem to be doing fine.
And sure, it's easy to say the guys from UCLA and Kentucky all left early and were therefore talented and are therefore excelling in the NBA.
So is the point, then, that Christian Laettner, JJ Redick and Bobby Hurley weren't talented?
So that's where we are with Allen. He could declare early for the draft, while there's still time or take his chances that all of this is just one massive coincidence and stay at Duke for at least one more year. But I think I know where this will end up if he ends up staying at Duke. "Abandon all hope, ye who enter here." Where did I see that before? Oh yeah, the doorway that leads to the home of the Devil. But maybe that's just a coincidence, too.